Last Updated: June 2010
For more information on the Summit County build-out analysis contact:
Kate Berg
Summit County Planning Department
Ph: (970) 668-4204
Email: kateb@co.summit.co.us
How much development has occurred in Summit County? How much development remains to be built? These are questions that a build-out analysis attempts to answer. The build-out analysis is titled “Summary of Residential Build-Out Analysis of Properties in Summit County, Colorado” and can be viewed by clicking here or by clicking on the link on the left side of the page. The build-out analysis provides information on what is currently built in Summit County (“County”) and what remains to be built, assuming continued growth subject to the zoning ordinances and subdivision regulations in place at the time of analysis.
The build-out analysis is broken out by planning basin, and includes build-out numbers for both the unincorporated areas and incorporated towns in the County. (Click here or on the link on the left side of the page to view a locator map, depicting the four planning basins, and six incorporated towns within the County.) Build-out for the unincorporated portions of the County, and the Towns of Blue River and Montezuma has been calculated by the Summit County Planning Department. Build-out for the remaining four towns in the County (Breckenridge, Dillon, Frisco, and Silverthorne) was obtained from the respective Town Planning Departments. The County Planning Department works to update build-out numbers for respective planning basins monthly, and adds newly constructed residential units bi-annually (using certificates of occupancy issued by the County Building Department). Build-out numbers are available by basin, subdivision and parcel.
Commercial build-out for the County has not been included in this analysis. Overall, there is not a significant amount of commercially zoned land within the unincorporated areas of the County, as most commercial activity is located within the incorporated towns. Furthermore, commercial build-out is somewhat difficult to estimate, as permitted commercial development varies based on a ratio of floor area to land area. Nevertheless, the County Planning Department is in the process of completing a detailed commercial build-out analysis. At this time, it is estimated that commercial build-out in unincorporated portions of the County is approximately 62%.
The build-out analysis is broken out into two categories: “absolute” build-out and “realistic” build-out. These two types of build-out are described in detail below.
Absolute build-out represents an evaluation of the existing zoning on every parcel of private land in unincorporated portions of the County and determines the maximum potential residential development allowed by that zoning. By subtracting the number of existing units built, it has been determined approximately what remains to be built. This is referred to as absolute build-out, because it represents the absolute or ultimate build-out potential that is permitted by existing zoning.
It is important to acknowledge that absolute build-out is not necessarily a fixed or static number. Some factors that could potentially act to increase absolute build-out in the County include: future land trades with the U.S. Forest Service; potential annexations and upzonings by towns of lands that are currently unincorporated; and the creation of new density for future affordable or workforce housing developments.
Policies in the Countywide Comprehensive Plan for Summit County, Colorado limit or cap the creation of new density on unincorporated lands as a means of controlling absolute build-out. However, to date only two of the six towns/municipalities in the County (towns of Blue River and Breckenridge) have embraced this limit on new density. Policies in the Countywide Comprehensive Plan urge cooperative planning with the other towns to encourage them to adopt similar policies controlling the creation of new density. The County continues to work with the Towns of Silverthorne, Dillon and Frisco to establish joint planning agreements addressing coordinated land use planning, density and transferable development rights (TDRs).
Realistic build-out represents a more likely picture of the build-out that may occur in the County. Realistic build-out accounts for the fact that it is unlikely absolute build-out, as described above, will be realized or achieved (i.e. the total number of units allowed per zoning will not be built). Thus realistic build-out in the County is less than absolute build-out. Realistic build-out factors in constraints that could preclude realization of the full development potential allowed under the existing zoning regulations. The factors that need to be considered and contribute to this assumption include, but are not limited to the following:
Click here to view the “Summary of Residential Build-Out Analysis of Properties in Summit County, Colorado”.
As shown in the build-out analysis, as of January 1, 2010, approximately 28,718 units of the 40,862 units allowed per zoning have been built in the County. This represents an “absolute” residential build-out of 70.28% (including both the unincorporated areas and the incorporated towns). As explained above, realistic residential build-out in the County is less than absolute build-out. County Planning Staff estimates that the realistic build-out for the County is approximately 37,757 units, which means that according to “realistic” build-out the County is approximately 76% built out (including both the unincorporated areas and the incorporated towns).
A number of observations can be made when reviewing the build-out analysis. In general, the data indicates that the incorporated towns are more built-out than the unincorporated portions of the County. Among the incorporated towns, the Town of Frisco is the most built-out at approximately 90%, followed by the towns of Blue River and Breckenridge, which are each approximately 79% built out. When looking at the respective planning basins (including both unincorporated areas and incorporated towns), in the context of “absolute” build-out, the Ten Mile Basin is the most built-out of the four basins, with an absolute build-out of approximately 83%, followed by the Snake River Basin, which is approximately 72% built-out. In terms of realistic build-out, all basins are roughly 70 - 85% built-out.
Interestingly, the data also shows that there are significantly more residential units built in the Upper Blue Basin than any other basin (including both unincorporated areas and incorporated towns). There are approximately 10,822 units built in the Upper Blue Basin, which is more than twice the number of units built in the Lower Blue or Ten Mile basins, and over 3,000 units more than exist in the Snake River Basin. Furthermore, the Upper Blue Basin also has the most remaining development potential among the four basins, with an “absolute” build-out potential of approximately 15,200 residential units (nearly 40% of the units permitted within the entire County).
There are approximately 14,977 units built in unincorporated portions of the County, of which approximately 9,036 (60%) of those are multifamily units. Additionally, the County build-out analysis indicates there are approximately 6,184 units remaining to be built on unincorporated lands, of which approximately 2,700 units (44%) have the potential to be multifamily. Therefore, nearly half of the remaining units to be built in unincorporated portions of the County are permitted for multifamily.
An analysis of growth rates over the past several years (2003-2009) reveals that, on average, the number of residential housing units built in the County (including both unincorporated areas and incorporated towns) has increased approximately 1.4% per year, with an average of 370 new housing units constructed each year. At the same rate of growth, there would be approximately 30,568 residential units in the County by the year 2015, 32,418 units by 2020, and 36,118 units by 2030. These represent respective “absolute” build out percentages of 75% in 2015, 79% in 2020, and 88% in 2030. These represent respective “relative” build out percentages of 81% in 2015, 86% in 2020, and 96% in 2030.
